BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in New York has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has fallen sharply in New York: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in New York is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.33–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in New York is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.33–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.573.5
20262.00.513.4
20271.90.453.4
20281.90.393.3
20291.80.333.3

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dexter Lake2719751968
West Bangor1519991990
Hope Falls1419951968
Inlet1420171979
Meridale1120241967
Balmat1120081977
Mcdonough920171967
Oxford919761967
Sabattis919831966
Sciota920061968
St Regis Fls920171976
Cooperstown819771970
Kasoag820241966
Petersburg720121966
Nashville720181967
Blue Ridge S720101969
North River720071966
Fowler719681966
Milford720231978
S Berne 2720242014
Durham619761966
S Berne620131967
Platte Cove620181968
Pulaski620241967
N Wilmurt619981967

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.