BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in New York has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has fallen sharply in New York: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in New York is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.28–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in New York is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.28–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.523.4
20271.90.463.4
20281.90.403.3
20291.80.343.3
20301.70.283.2

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dexter Lake2719751968
West Bangor1519991990
Hope Falls1419951968
Inlet1420171979
Balmat1120081977
Meridale920251967
Mcdonough920171967
Oxford919761967
Sabattis919831966
Sciota920061968
St Regis Fls920171976
Cooperstown819771970
Petersburg720121966
Nashville720181967
Blue Ridge S720101969
Fowler719681966
Wanakena720251980
Parishville720251969
Milford720231978
Durham619761966
S Berne620131967
Platte Cove620181968
Pulaski620241967
N Wilmurt619981967
Degrasse620251980

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.