BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Wyoming has surged: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+110%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has surged in Wyoming: up 110% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Wyoming is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.01–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Wyoming is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.01–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.010.35
20260.180.010.35
20270.180.010.35
20280.180.010.36
20290.180.010.36

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dayton620241983
Raven419951995
Hunter Peak320101986
Meeteetse320242003
Harmony320222013
Cody220242003
Otto220241993
Midvale220242017
Fontenelle220232023
Clark220112010
Moose220212021
Moskee220011986
Ethete220211993
Mayoworth220241987
Soda Lake220051996
Fiddler Lk219941992
Fletcher Pk220071992
Moskee 3220242022
Basin120242017
Sundance120221975
Colter Bay119951995
Dubois120112011
Nowood120141995
Brookhurst120122004
Seely 2120222022

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.