BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Maine

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Maine has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Maine. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Maine is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Maine is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.004.7
20271.80.004.7
20281.80.004.6
20291.70.004.6
20301.70.004.6

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nesowadnehun2020211990
Warren1319901973
Horse Mtn1320111983
Manchester719951971
Baxter719881977
Washburn720051979
Bowdoin Ctr620131975
Benton619801971
Seboomook Lk620141972
St David620051982
Wilson Mills520251983
Reeds520251990
Waite519771977
Baker Lake520091994
Clayton Lake 2520112010
Andover520212010
East Troy420211973
Brooks420211977
Northfield419811976
Carrying Pl420251979
Forest Sta420001966
Jefferson420081991
Stacyville420252021
Winn320211969
Medway320251976

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.