BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in New Hampshire has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has collapsed in New Hampshire: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.002.3
20270.000.002.2
20280.000.002.2
20290.000.002.2
20300.000.002.2

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crawford Not1019751966
Canterbury920251966
Walpole720251966
Hopkinton420251966
Mt Chocorua420251966
Jeffers Ntch420251993
Epsom320161966
Fitzwilliam220251966
Concord220251966
Marlow220251966
Lempster220251966
Jefferson Hl220251966
Milan220251966
Clarksville220241966
Glen220251975
Dixville Notch 2220252018
Peterborough120211966
Brentwood119921966
Dover120211966
Strafford120251966
Gilmantn I W120251969
Wilmot120251966
Franconia120231966
Stratford120211966
Dixvil Notch120171966

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.