Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Least Flycatcher Population Trend in North Carolina
Least Flycatcher in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1975.
-72%Since 1975
14Routes In State
44Years
Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in North Carolina
long arc declinecomputed index
Least Flycatcher has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1975.
Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in North Carolina
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2195% range
±98.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| 2027 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| 2028 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| 2029 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in North Carolina
Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States
alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.