Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in North Carolina

Least Flycatcher in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-72%Since 1975
14Routes In State
44Years

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in North Carolina

long arc declinecomputed index

Least Flycatcher has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.000.2195% range
±98.9%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.21
20260.000.000.21
20270.000.000.21
20280.000.000.21
20290.000.000.21

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in North Carolina.
Waterville220241998
Marshall220172016
Todd120231995
Jordan119871987
Sturgills120142008
Busick119951995
Kyle120222022
Pinelog120022001
Brevard119781978
French Broad River120222006
Fontana120121968
Cherokee120242011
Murphy120242024
Cullowhee120231974

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.