BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in North Carolina has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-75%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has collapsed in North Carolina: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.21
20270.000.000.21
20280.000.000.21
20290.000.000.21
20300.000.000.21

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marshall220172016
Todd120231995
Waterville120251998
Jordan119871987
Sturgills120142008
Busick119951995
Kyle120222022
Pinelog120022001
Brevard119781978
French Broad River120222006
Fontana120121968
Cherokee120252011
Murphy120242024
Cullowhee120231974

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.