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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-72%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.21
20260.000.000.21
20270.000.000.21
20280.000.000.21
20290.000.000.21

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waterville220241998
Marshall220172016
Todd120231995
Jordan119871987
Sturgills120142008
Busick119951995
Kyle120222022
Pinelog120022001
Brevard119781978
French Broad River120222006
Fontana120121968
Cherokee120242011
Murphy120242024
Cullowhee120231974

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.