BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Indiana has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-75%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Indiana: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.11
20260.000.000.11
20270.000.000.11
20280.000.000.11
20290.000.000.11

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Knox320112008
Indiana Dune220091997
Gary119811981
South Bend119821969
Middlebury120241992
Packertown120041976
Ellis120111968
Fowler119831983
Monticello120051988
Galveston119821982
Middletown119771977
Swayzee120031986
Pimento119921992
Belmont120032003
Milroy119751974
Vevay119781969
Lagrange120022002
Lakeville120082008
Packertown 2120052005

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.