BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Montana has surged: up 821% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+821%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has surged in Montana: up 821% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.63–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.63–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.581.8
20261.20.591.8
20271.20.601.8
20281.20.611.8
20291.20.631.9

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Libby Dam3920151986
Reed Point1820241977
Highwood820241972
Cleveland520241985
Forsyth520231991
Redstone420241983
Brandenberg420191969
Fish Creek420001996
Painted Rock420101994
Chinook420242015
Clyde Park420242018
Glasgow320221988
Locate320242002
Pablo Res.320152008
St. Mary 2320242011
Wolf Creek320222015
Church Hill320242018
Greenough320022000
Kalispell220181969
Harlem220131998
St Regis220091996
Arlee220222010
Augusta220241977
Brusett220241982
Jordan220172010

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.