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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Minnesota has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.0–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.0–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.13.07.1
20265.13.07.1
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20295.13.07.1

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bena3419771967
Sawbill Lndg3120241973
Jordan2620231993
Crane Lake2320241969
Blackduck2220222004
Backus2020241967
Waskish1920241978
Bigfork1820241993
Lockport1720241967
Sherry Lake1720221969
Nett Lake1620242013
Glendale1520241993
Mahtowa1320231993
Cass Lake1320161980
Floodwood1220241967
Little Fork1220241969
Brook Park1220241998
Sawbill Camp1220241993
Red Lake1120241993
Chisholm1120242019
Hart Lake1020241967
New London1020241995
Babbitt1020231994
Nebish1020231982
Bemidji919801967

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.