BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.39
20260.030.000.39
20270.030.000.38
20280.020.000.38
20290.020.000.37

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shenandoa Np520241994
Covington519661966
Iron Mountain 3520232014
Taylorstown419851982
W Augusta219981971
Rural Retrt220131983
Newbern219711971
Big Meadows220171994
Bald Knob120232000
Tryme120142014
Jerome120042004
Potts Mtn.119951995
Mountain Lk.120181992
Isom120081969
Putnam119741969
Shipman119721969
Iron Mtn.120111992
Loft Mtn120171994
Front Royal119981994
Pine Mtn.120052005
Iron Mountain 2120132013
Clinchport119691969
Saltville119811970
Elamsville119931992
Hebron119861986

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.