Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Virginia
Least Flycatcher in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
-69%Since 1970
25Routes In State
49Years
Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in Virginia
long arc declinecomputed index
Least Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Virginia
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-80%Change by 2029
0.02Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.3795% range
±81.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| 2026 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| 2027 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| 2028 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| 2029 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Virginia
| Shenandoa Np | 5 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Covington | 5 | 1966 | 1966 |
| Iron Mountain 3 | 5 | 2023 | 2014 |
| Taylorstown | 4 | 1985 | 1982 |
| W Augusta | 2 | 1998 | 1971 |
| Rural Retrt | 2 | 2013 | 1983 |
| Newbern | 2 | 1971 | 1971 |
| Big Meadows | 2 | 2017 | 1994 |
| Bald Knob | 1 | 2023 | 2000 |
| Tryme | 1 | 2014 | 2014 |
| Jerome | 1 | 2004 | 2004 |
| Potts Mtn. | 1 | 1995 | 1995 |
| Mountain Lk. | 1 | 2018 | 1992 |
| Isom | 1 | 2008 | 1969 |
| Putnam | 1 | 1974 | 1969 |
| Shipman | 1 | 1972 | 1969 |
| Iron Mtn. | 1 | 2011 | 1992 |
| Loft Mtn | 1 | 2017 | 1994 |
| Front Royal | 1 | 1998 | 1994 |
| Pine Mtn. | 1 | 2005 | 2005 |
| Iron Mountain 2 | 1 | 2013 | 2013 |
| Clinchport | 1 | 1969 | 1969 |
| Saltville | 1 | 1981 | 1970 |
| Elamsville | 1 | 1993 | 1992 |
| Hebron | 1 | 1986 | 1986 |
Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.