BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Wisconsin has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.53.8
20262.61.43.8
20272.61.43.7
20282.51.43.7
20292.51.33.6

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Popple River2220241966
Gresham2220241998
Mellen1720241998
Hollister1520241967
Amberg1520241980
Flambeau1420241998
Grand View1320241966
Cavour1320241998
Weirgor Springs1120241999
Land O Lakes1020161967
Union Twp1020241966
Rib Lake1020241966
Irma1020241967
Stevens Pt1020231966
Crandon920241967
Gilman820241966
Merrill820241966
Wausaukee820241980
Shanagolden720241966
Land O' Lakes 2720242017
Conover720241998
Bayfield620241967
Mather620231966
Phillips520241966
Cumberland420241966

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.