BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Wisconsin has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.71.53.9
20272.71.53.9
20282.61.43.8
20292.61.43.8
20302.51.33.7

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cavour2120251998
Popple River2020251966
Hollister1920251967
Gresham1920251998
Phillips1820251966
Merrill1420251966
Rib Lake1320251966
Gilman1220251966
Crandon1220251967
Amberg1220251980
Mellen1220251998
Bashaw1220251998
Land O' Lakes 21120252017
Flambeau1120251998
Shanagolden1020251966
Land O Lakes1020161967
Stevens Pt1020231966
Weirgor Springs1020251999
Grand View820251966
Chaffey720251966
Bayfield720251967
Irma720251967
Conover720251998
Wausaukee620251980
Mather620231966

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.