BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in South Dakota has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+157%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has surged in South Dakota: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in South Dakota is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in South Dakota is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.130.56
20260.350.140.57
20270.360.140.57
20280.370.150.58
20290.370.160.59

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Promise720121999
Wilmot520241997
Britton520231983
Veblen420231969
Conde319691967
Long Lake320191972
Rosebud220092009
Broadland220122002
Custer220111999
Eagle Butte220151990
Silver City220022001
Lennox120051979
Geddes120162014
Chamberlain120052005
Cottonwood119961996
Volga120062006
Raymond120171967
Roswell120102010
Forbes120241977
Gettysburg120192019
Roubaix Lk119761976
Gorman120091980
Maurine120022002
Reva120241987
Lodgepole120141990

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.