BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Ohio has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Ohio: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±173.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.14
20260.000.000.14
20270.000.000.14
20280.000.000.14
20290.000.000.14

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wayne N.F.220182016
Strongsville219771968
Scioto Furn220042003
Keene219951995
Lockport119711971
Kunkle119921992
Shawnee S.F.120002000
N Baltimore119931991
Tar Hollow119951992
Tick Ridge120022002
Pittsfield120071994
Peru119731973
Bismark119771977
Mohican S.F.120011992
Wayland120102010
Garrettsvile119891967
Middlefield120071967
Lenox120161966
Herner Crns119961996
Birmingham120241993
New Dover119961996
London120092009
Lattasburg119821967
Fulton119811977
Meadowbrook119931979

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.