BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in North Dakota has surged: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+257%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has surged in North Dakota: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in North Dakota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 6.7–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.7–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in North Dakota is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 6.7–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.96.39.6
20268.06.49.7
20278.26.59.8
20288.36.69.9
20298.46.710

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns5820241980
Denbigh3120241968
Loraine1820191983
Carpio1520231967
Kempton1420171967
Cooperstown1420241969
Zap920241967
Sheyenne Lk920241980
Douglas Crk820241982
Edgeley720241980
Lake George720221968
Stanley720241968
Sydney619831967
Regan620221968
Dunn Center620231968
Emerado520241973
Tobacco520191972
Parshall520111982
Solen520242005
Horsehead Lk420241980
Buchanan320241967
Nash320171980
Gorham320181970
Wild Rose320241982
Powers Lake320241986

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.