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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Michigan has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.65–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.65–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.774.0
20262.40.744.0
20272.30.714.0
20282.30.683.9
20292.30.653.9

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imp Lake2320191992
Big Island Lake2220102008
Shingleton1620241967
Gibbs City1320241979
Maple Grove1320241967
Cluster Lakes1220102006
Hiawatha Nf1120241992
Cunard1020211973
Isabella 21020242013
Sidnaw1020241993
Ned Lake920241986
Ensign920102006
Irons819891970
Hubbard Lake819961973
Brocky Lake720241980
Tahquamenon720241974
Gooseneck720102008
Herman620221983
Cathro620161967
Crystal Fls520241979
Creighton520231978
Riggsville520191967
Owendale519941991
Ontonagon420191967
Wilson420091966

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.