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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Michigan has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.71–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.71–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.824.2
20272.50.794.1
20282.40.764.1
20292.40.734.1
20302.40.714.0

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shingleton2620251967
Maple Grove2420251967
Imp Lake2320191992
Big Island Lake2220102008
Cluster Lakes1220102006
Ned Lake1120251986
Gibbs City1120251979
Isabella 21120252013
Hiawatha Nf1120251992
Ishpeming1020251980
Cunard1020211973
Creighton1020251978
Tahquamenon1020251974
Ensign920102006
Irons819891970
Hubbard Lake819961973
Harrietta820251990
Sidnaw720251993
Gooseneck720102008
Herman620221983
Cathro620161967
Scottville520251968
Pickford520251973
Riggsville520191967
Owendale519941991

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.