BirdAnalyst
Guild · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Aerial Insectivores In Louisiana

All statesLouisiana

14 species in this guild. As a group they are +3%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for aerial insectivores in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Louisiana is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.6–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in Louisiana is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.6–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.03.66.4
20265.03.66.4
20275.03.66.4
20285.03.66.4
20295.03.66.4

Member Species In Louisiana

Aerial insectivores species in Louisiana.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Common NighthawkCaprimulgidae-90%
Scissor-tailed FlycatcherTyrannidae-66%
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae-56%
Chuck-will's-widowCaprimulgidae-34%
Purple MartinHirundinidae-25%
Eastern Wood-PeweeTyrannidae-22%
Chimney SwiftApodidae-11%
Great Crested FlycatcherTyrannidae+40%
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae+220%
Eastern PhoebeTyrannidae+246%
Acadian FlycatcherTyrannidae+353%
Cave SwallowHirundinidae21×
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae38×
Barn SwallowHirundinidae50×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.