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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Louisiana has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+342%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Louisiana: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.6 (95% range 0.99–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.6 (95% range 0.99–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.954.2
20272.60.964.2
20282.60.974.2
20292.60.984.2
20302.60.994.2

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tensas Nwr2620251987
Atchafalaya1720251989
Plettenberg1520221968
Ivan1420131998
Norwood1120252006
Ivan 21020252014
Frogmore820251998
Natchez820251992
Easton719901967
Carterville619921992
Enterprise620252006
Derry519891971
Flat Creek520251998
Fort Polk419741967
Mount Union420251998
Linville420251998
Turkey Creek419981998
Pine Prairie419971995
Oakdale419941992
Lacombe319831967
De Ridder320191968
Shaw320241967
Cypress319821971
Many319921989
Marion319961988

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.