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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Louisiana has surged: up 353% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+353%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Louisiana: up 353% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 0.94–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.94–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 0.94–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.914.2
20262.60.924.2
20272.60.924.2
20282.60.934.2
20292.60.944.2

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tensas Nwr2320241987
Atchafalaya1620241989
Plettenberg1520221968
Ivan1420131998
Natchez820241992
Easton719901967
Ivan 2720162014
Carterville619921992
Frogmore620241998
Mount Union620241998
Womack620241999
Derry519891971
Goodwill520242004
Enterprise520242006
Linville520241998
Fort Polk419741967
Turkey Creek419981998
Pine Prairie419971995
Oakdale419941992
Cheniere420241984
Lacombe319831967
De Ridder320191968
Shaw320241967
Cypress319821971
Many319921989

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.