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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Florida has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Acadian Flycatcher in Florida. See the full index history below.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.50
20260.200.000.50
20270.190.000.49
20280.180.000.49
20290.180.000.48

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alligator Pt520241987
Blountstown320241968
Seminole Hills 2320222002
New Hope320112009
Belmont220161967
Belmore219931970
Miller Xrds220191987
Hixtown Swmp220221987
Bloxham220221987
Oak Grove120111969
Mossy Head120071968
Broad Branch120171974
Miccosukee120241969
Seminole Hls120001971
Telogia119831968
Apalachicola120221987
Covington120191966
Steinhatchee120221967
Micanopy119861966
Romeo119801980
Ft Gadsden120181970
Croom119881988
Goethe120212021
St Augustine120231967
Hilliard120241967

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.