BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Iowa

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Iowa has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+23%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Acadian Flycatcher in Iowa. See the full index history below.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Iowa is projected to fall about 38% by 2016 — from 0.10 in 2011 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2016TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2016 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Iowa is projected to fall about 38% by 2016 — from 0.10 in 2011 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682016
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20120.060.000.16
20130.060.000.16
20140.060.000.16
20150.060.000.16
20160.060.000.16

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Melrose419791979
Mt Hamill119991968
Bryant119871987
Williamsburg119731973
Maquoketa120111969
Dinsdale119681968
Festina120112011

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.