BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in North Carolina has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+122%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in North Carolina: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 2.2–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 2.2–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.82.27.5
20264.92.27.5
20274.92.27.6
20284.92.27.6
20294.92.27.6

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rheasville1520172005
Jackson1220171995
French Broad River1220242001
Table Rock1220221994
Arapahoe1119951966
Dortches1120241990
Fontana1020241968
Lloyd Xroads1020241990
Osmond1020242001
Dismal Swamp1020241993
Waterville1020241994
Highlands1020241994
Spring Hope1020242002
Ernul920092001
N. Mills Riv919951994
Andrews919981994
Green Swamp920062002
Shallotte819911967
Speed820241986
Brevard820241968
California820131972
California 2820242014
Bullock820241997
Gupton820242001
Chowan River820062002

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.