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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in North Carolina has surged: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+149%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in North Carolina: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 2.2–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 2.2–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.82.17.5
20274.82.27.5
20284.82.27.5
20294.92.27.5
20304.92.27.5

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spring Hope1920252002
Washington1720252001
Bullock1520251997
Rheasville1520172005
Youngsville1420251967
Dortches1420251990
Jackson1220171995
French Broad River1220252001
Table Rock1220221994
Highlands1220251994
Arapahoe1119951966
Lloyd Xroads1020241990
Durham1020251991
Dismal Swamp1020241993
California 2920252014
Ernul920092001
N. Mills Riv919951994
Andrews919981994
Green Swamp920062002
Shallotte819911967
Speed820251986
Brevard820251968
Fontana820251968
California820131972
Mount Airy820252000

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.