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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Arkansas has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Acadian Flycatcher in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Arkansas is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.6–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Arkansas is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.6–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.53.8
20262.71.53.8
20272.71.63.8
20282.71.63.8
20292.71.63.9

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S Ridge2620242011
South Bend1220231968
Hope920241967
Marshall920212011
Locust Bayou820231967
Poyen820071967
Nance820241993
Ozark Nf720241991
Rupert620241970
Springhill620222010
Havana520212010
Four Lakes520011994
Hatfield 2520242017
Zion420241967
Ravenden Springs420152010
Boston Mtn.420241994
Dry Fork 2420242024
Hughes320231967
Waldron320241967
Saffell320162003
Compton320221967
Rudy320242011
Princeton320141998
Poyen 2320242008
Old Milo220241967

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.