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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Arkansas is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.7–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Arkansas is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.7–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.71.63.9
20272.81.63.9
20282.81.63.9
20292.81.74.0
20302.81.74.0

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S Ridge2720252011
Nance1420251993
Marshall920212011
Locust Bayou820231967
Poyen820071967
Hatfield 2820252017
South Bend720251968
Poyen 2720252008
Ozark Nf620251991
Rupert620241970
Springhill620222010
Hope520251967
Hughes520251967
Havana520212010
Magazine Mtn520251993
Four Lakes520011994
Ravenden Springs420152010
Stephens420252011
Old Milo320251967
Saffell320162003
Compton320221967
Gillett320252010
Princeton320141998
Crows219911967
Whitton219911991

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.