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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Mississippi has surged: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

19×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Mississippi: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Mississippi is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.0–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Mississippi is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.0–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.02.67.4
20265.12.77.5
20275.22.87.6
20285.32.97.7
20295.43.07.7

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace South4120192007
Trace Lorman3520192016
Oak Ridge Vick3520212015
Trace Attala3120192016
Delta N.F.2820211995
Vicksburg Np2520212016
Warren Vick2420222018
Trace Chickasaw2220232012
Trace Choctaw2020192012
Beverly1520111966
Fort Adams1520221975
Holly Springs1120242009
Trace Central1020222007
Trace Hinds1020222014
Lake820241966
Corinth820241975
Duck Hill720241969
Forest720241972
Embry720241988
Sandy Creek620001993
Trace North620182008
Trace Lee620182013
Star520242016
Dundee420221972
Fayette420131972

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.