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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Missouri has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

11×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Missouri: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 1.9–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 1.9–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.31.82.8
20272.31.82.8
20282.41.92.9
20292.41.92.9
20302.41.92.9

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Williamsvill1520251994
Lincoln1520252018
Centerville1120251994
Bennett1020251994
Osage Beach920251998
Barks720251994
Cascade620251976
Palace620252014
Viburnum620242014
Akers520251974
Clementine519961980
Rueter 2520252023
Whitewater520251996
Moselle520252000
Ironton419801980
Syracuse420241969
House Springs420232021
Doe Run420252015
Wesco320251981
Filley320251975
Centertown320251978
Woodlandville320232013
Huntsville320252010
Richland320252021
Auburn320252014

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.