BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Missouri has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

12×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Missouri: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 1.9–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 1.9–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.72.7
20262.31.82.8
20272.31.82.8
20282.41.82.9
20292.41.92.9

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Williamsvill1620241994
Bennett1020241994
Barks1020241994
Lincoln1020242018
Centerville920241994
Eugene920242013
Cascade820241976
Doe Run820242015
Palace720242014
Whitewater620241996
Moselle620242000
Viburnum620242014
Wesco520241981
Clementine519961980
Mincy520242014
Hilda520241994
Crane520241994
Osage Beach520241998
Ironton419801980
Syracuse420241969
House Springs420232021
Graniteville420241983
Sweden320241986
Woodlandville320232013
Huntsville320242010

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.