BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Indiana has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+113%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Indiana: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.4–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.32.24.4
20263.32.34.4
20273.42.34.4
20283.42.34.5
20293.42.44.5

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hoosier2220241990
Georgia1920241999
Celestine1220241979
Corydon1220241966
Clear Spring1020241981
Wallace1020242000
Belmont920241981
Indian Spgs920241982
Azalia720241982
Cross Plains620241999
Packertown520041973
Pimento420221988
Spencer420241967
Witts Station420242000
New Phila320241982
Vevay320241966
South Bend219901990
Ellis220241967
Galveston220221981
Thorntown220112003
Berne220221980
Friendswood220181986
Brookville220241970
New Castle220212017
Newberry220192001

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.