BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Kentucky has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Kentucky: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.0–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.0–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.95.5
20264.32.95.6
20274.33.05.6
20284.33.05.6
20294.43.05.7

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mammoth Cave2420141995
Staffordsvil1919971996
Cumberlnd Gp1620181966
Joy1620231981
Mammoth Cave North1620132009
Carter1320241976
Bays Fork1320191999
Pippa Passes1219971988
Phelps1219971979
Beattyville 21120242006
Brownsville1020242022
Canton1020241968
Pine Ridge1019781966
Apex920242005
Gesling919731967
Bardwell 2920242006
Monticello820221968
Morganfield820242022
Dixon720222007
Hegira620241988
Sunnybrook620221968
Million619861967
Levee 2620192007
Bardwell520031967
Johnsonville520211968

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.