BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Virginia has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has risen sharply in Virginia: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.4 (95% range 5.9–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.4 (95% range 5.9–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.25.78.7
20267.35.88.8
20277.35.88.8
20287.45.98.9
20297.45.98.9

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Front Royal3620241993
New Market3220241992
Pw Forest Pk3120091992
Brandon2820241992
Glenwood2320231992
Walkers2220231992
Surry2020241977
Bald Knob1920241992
Port Royal1820191977
Church Road1620241966
White Stone1620241966
Newsoms1620241967
Mountain Lk.1620181992
Truhart1620241996
Elamsville1520161978
Branchville1520241966
Newville1520241988
Ft Pickett S1519951993
Wylliesburg1220191976
Gloucester1220241992
Big Meadows1220241993
Iron Mountain 21220132012
W Augusta1120241967
Amherst1020241967
Hall1020231967

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexaswest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.