BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Virginia has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Virginia: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.5 (95% range 6.0–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.5 (95% range 6.0–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.35.88.8
20277.45.98.9
20287.45.98.9
20297.56.09.0
20307.56.09.0

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Market3720251992
Pw Forest Pk3120091992
Front Royal2620251993
Brandon2520251992
Surry2420251977
Glenwood2320231992
Port Royal2220251977
Walkers2220231992
Amherst1920251967
Newsoms1620241967
Mountain Lk.1620181992
Truhart1620241996
Elamsville1520161978
Branchville1520241966
Newville1520241988
Rural Retrt1520251982
Ft Pickett S1519951993
White Stone1420251966
Tryme1220251975
Wylliesburg1220191976
Iron Mountain 21220132012
Bald Knob1120251992
W Augusta1020251967
Hall1020251967
Brodnax1020251973

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexaswest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.