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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Alabama has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+157%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Alabama: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Alabama is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Alabama is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.7–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.62.8
20272.21.62.9
20282.31.62.9
20292.31.62.9
20302.31.72.9

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Epes2220241980
Sprott-Cahaba Riv1820141999
Riderwood1220231966
Greensboro1220251966
Autaugaville1220251996
Warrior Std1120251966
Wedgeworth1020251985
Whitehall920251988
Vina920231996
Sprague820251973
Elkmont820251990
Harrell720251968
Elamville720251984
Liberty City 2720252017
Gainestown Ferry720151999
St Florian620251967
Cottonton620251969
Brantley620251973
Jena620251984
Seale620171996
Millerville520251970
Wallsboro520251971
South520251972
Carrollton520251994
Odenville520251996

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.