BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Alabama has surged: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+128%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Alabama: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Alabama is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.6–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Alabama is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.6–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.52.6
20262.11.62.6
20272.11.62.7
20282.11.62.7
20292.21.62.7

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Epes2220241980
Sprott-Cahaba Riv1820141999
Riderwood1220231966
Greensboro1220241966
Howard1120241966
Vina920231996
Elkmont820241990
Wedgeworth720241985
Gainestown Ferry720151999
Cottonton620241969
Jena620241984
Liberty City 2620242017
Nixburg 2620242002
Seale620171996
Millerville520241970
Sprague520241973
Brantley520231973
Helicon520241996
Riverside520131999
Guntersville420241980
Carter Grove420232007
Stevenson420242009
Vernon420212000
Gastonburg420241996
Triana420112002

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.