BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Ohio has surged: up 328% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+328%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Ohio: up 328% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.8 (95% range 5.0–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.8 (95% range 5.0–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.54.68.4
20266.64.78.4
20276.74.88.5
20286.74.98.6
20296.85.08.7

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow5620241992
Dresden4020241967
Mohican S.F.3520241992
Wayne N.F.2020241992
Tick Ridge2020191993
Coal Run1519921966
Zaleski S.F.1420241992
South Olive1420241993
Birmingham1320241988
Scioto Trail1120131992
Pike S.F.1120131992
New Marshfld1120241966
Bolins Mills1120241966
Scioto Furn1120221993
Keene1120231992
Stonecreek1020241996
Shawnee S.F.920001992
Adamsville819891971
Ray820241992
Wilgus620191992
Garrettsvile519911980
Petersburg520101996
Smithfield520241966
Shawnee S.F. 2520192001
Dell520191993

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.