BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Oklahoma has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+101%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Oklahoma: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.30 (95% range 0.10–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.30 (95% range 0.10–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.090.50
20260.300.090.50
20270.300.090.50
20280.300.100.51
20290.300.100.51

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt. Herman520191998
Indianola320242019
Bethel320241993
Goodwater220211992
Big Cedar120241967
Blanco119921978
Mcalester119901978
Ouachita Nf120151991
Mill Creek119891989
Hee Mountain120242001
Baron120191968
Canadian119951992
Holdenville119711971
Beggs120221992
Choctaw120072007
Verden119711971
Peoria120221970
Welch120121993
Collinsville120131968
Bartlesville120121971
Matoy119921992
Pocola120081992
Wainwright119981994
Heyburn120241993
Colcord120221992

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.