BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Texas has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Acadian Flycatcher in Texas. See the full index history below.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.42
20260.200.000.42
20270.200.000.42
20280.200.000.42
20290.200.000.42

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peach Creek619921969
Powell Park 2620242024
Big Sandy Bith420242016
Town Bluff420241967
Easton420131994
Carlos420122006
Fred320241995
Union Hill320241995
Bon Wier320241996
Smyrna320101995
College Stn219901990
Hinkles Fer220091978
Livingston220161969
Chandler 2220162005
Diboll220241973
Massey Lake220242011
Pidcoke220061999
Crossroads220241977
Smyrna 2220232012
Alexander St220241995
Weches220241995
Mt. Selman220241998
Gambill Ref.219951995
Oak Grove 2120142005
Lance Rosier Bith120192014

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.