BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Tennessee has surged: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+213%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Tennessee: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Tennessee is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.7–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Tennessee is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.7–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.74.57.0
20265.84.57.1
20275.94.67.1
20285.94.77.2
20296.04.77.3

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield3920241966
Trace Lewis3020172013
Big Sandy2520241973
Collinwood1920241966
Indian Mound 21920232004
Pond Creek1620241966
Trace Collinwood1620182015
Silerton1220241971
Campbellsville1120171966
Sweetlips1020231972
Wrigley1020221966
Red Bank1019781966
Silver Pt920241967
Lewis Forest820241966
Elk Valley720221970
Willis Sprng720231994
Tellico620241995
Moscow520241979
Brownsville520241966
Indian Mound519981966
Mcfarland519931967
Walland519891966
Mecca520231994
Cornpone520241990
Whiteville320241966

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.