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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Tennessee has surged: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+208%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Tennessee: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.1 (95% range 4.8–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.1 (95% range 4.8–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.84.67.1
20275.94.67.1
20286.04.77.2
20296.04.87.3
20306.14.87.3

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace Lewis3020172013
Mansfield2320251966
Big Sandy2220251973
Pond Creek2220251966
Collinwood2020251966
Indian Mound 21920232004
Trace Collinwood1620182015
Silerton1220241971
Campbellsville1120171966
Sweetlips1020231972
Wrigley1020221966
Red Bank1019781966
Lewis Forest920251966
Silver Pt920241967
Elk Valley720251970
Willis Sprng720231994
Tiptonville620251967
Indian Mound519981966
Mcfarland519931967
Walland519891966
Mecca520231994
Cornpone520241990
Tellico420251995
Cades Cove420251989
Moscow320251979

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.