BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Wisconsin has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+43%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Acadian Flycatcher in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.05
20260.030.000.05
20270.030.000.05
20280.030.000.05
20290.030.000.05

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casco320022002
N Andover220222012
Hazel Green119821982
Hebron120242024
Paris120182018
Manawa119881988
Clintonville120081999
Holway119681968
Viroqua120241980
Rolling Grnd120152003
N Freedom120242005
Buena Vista120022001
Princeton120192019
Prairie Du Chien120222005
Highland119981998
Washington I119751973

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.