BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in New York has surged: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+181%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Acadian Flycatcher in New York. See the full index history below.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in New York is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in New York is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.010.05
20270.030.010.05
20280.030.010.05
20290.030.010.05
20300.030.010.05

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Romulus219901990
Sheridan220252024
Huntington119811981
Bedford119911991
Westbrookvle120181978
W Shokan120192018
Whitney Pt119831983
Corbettsvile119861986
Lisle119911991
Trumansburg120192014
Orleans119671967
Branchport119981996
Cattaraugus119851970
Castile120252009
Randolph120121983
Cherry Hill119861986
Nashville120182018
Byron119871987
Churchville119911991
Pulaski120212019
Purdy120012001
Warwick 2119791979

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.