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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Kansas has surged: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+162%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Acadian Flycatcher has surged in Kansas: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Kansas is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Kansas is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.11
20260.050.000.11
20270.050.000.11
20280.050.000.11
20290.050.000.11

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading Post220242005
Rock Creek219931972
Melrose119751968
Olathe120151969
Pittsburg120182018
Barclay119761976
Wreford119921992
Morehead120222014
Buckeye119751975
Le Loup120212001
Grantville119741973
Severance120242004
Rock Creek 2120242024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.