BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Acadian Flycatcher in Kansas has surged: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+219%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Acadian Flycatcher Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Acadian Flycatcher in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Acadian Flycatcher Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Kansas is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Acadian Flycatcher in Kansas is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.12
20270.060.000.12
20280.060.000.12
20290.060.000.12
20300.060.000.12

Acadian Flycatcher Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Acadian Flycatcher in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading Post220252005
Rock Creek219931972
Melrose119751968
Olathe120151969
Pittsburg120182018
Barclay119761976
Wreford119921992
Morehead120222014
Buckeye119751975
Le Loup120212001
Grantville119741973
Severance120252004
Rock Creek 2120242024

Acadian Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.