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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Louisiana has surged: up 246% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+246%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Louisiana: up 246% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Louisiana is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.06–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Louisiana is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.06–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.050.42
20260.240.050.42
20270.240.060.42
20280.240.060.43
20290.240.060.43

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Longstreet720241989
Ivan 2520162014
Evelyn320242013
Fort Jessup220232022
Ivan220132010
De Quincy220102000
Zwolle220232023
Mount Union220231998
Haughton120242004
Bickham119961972
Shaw119881988
Derry119801972
Fishville119941994
Fort Polk119741974
Mer Rouge119711971
Clay120141987
Goodwill120242006
Grayson120092009
Womack120242001
Hackberry 2120242024
Burr Ferry120151989
Cheniere120132013

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.