BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Pennsylvania has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 3.5–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.8 (95% range 3.5–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.73.48.0
20265.73.48.1
20275.83.48.1
20285.83.58.1
20295.83.58.1

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roulette 22020242022
Roulette1720211970
Little Marsh1620241967
Ryde1520051968
Ltl Pine Cr1520241990
Honesdale1420241972
Harmonsburg1320231966
Sigel1220241981
Mawr Glen1220241966
Marsh Hill1220241983
Waterstreet1220241968
Drehersville1219991966
Greentown1120241969
Susquehanna1120241971
Drehersville 21120242000
Wild Creek1120241988
Pocono Summit1020241966
Canadensis1020241969
Duvall1020211974
Mifflintown1020241966
Hometown1020241966
Laurel Hill1020241978
Berwick1020241985
Betula920221973
Logue920231970

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.