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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Pennsylvania has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.4–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 3.4–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.73.38.0
20275.73.38.0
20285.73.48.0
20295.73.48.1
20305.83.48.1

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roulette1720211970
Little Marsh1620241967
Mawr Glen1520251966
Ryde1520051968
Roulette 21520252022
Sigel1420251981
Ramsey1420251968
Stoneybreak1420251992
Waterstreet1220241968
Drehersville1219991966
Greentown1120241969
Ellenton1120251982
Drehersville 21120252000
Duvall1020211974
Betula920221973
Laurel Hill920251978
Wild Creek920251988
Eldred820221973
Logue820251970
Marsh Hill820251983
Poyntelle820251969
Beaver820251969
Plesant Grov820241966
Aspers819891968
Broad Mtn.820251993

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.