BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Wisconsin has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.3–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±177.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.3–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±177.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.61.26.0
20273.61.26.1
20283.71.36.1
20293.71.36.1
20303.71.36.1

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hatfield1519981970
Weirgor Springs1120251999
Wausaukee1020251980
Union Twp920251966
Bashaw920251998
Iron River820251968
Loraine820251966
Gilmanton820251966
Amnicon Falls820251998
Phillips720251966
Gresham720251998
Chaffey620251966
Holway619891967
Cadott620251969
N Andover620251967
Cumberland520251966
Gilman520251966
Rib Lake520251966
Amberg520251980
Mather520231966
Omro520011967
Princeton520171966
Eden520251966
River Falls520251998
Beloit520251999

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.