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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in North Carolina has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+119%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in North Carolina: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in North Carolina is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.6–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in North Carolina is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.6–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.45.0
20263.82.55.1
20273.82.55.1
20283.82.55.1
20293.92.65.2

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sturgills2620242001
Flay2520241990
Brevard1920241968
Sheffield1620241991
Monticello1520241990
Mount Airy1520242000
Ostwalt1520242012
Copeland1320241968
Marshall1320241990
Todd1320231995
Mooresville 21220242006
Eden1220241987
Oakboro1020241969
Oteen1020241976
Hulls Xroads1020231997
Waterville1020241994
Cherokee1020242011
Saxapahaw920231967
Climax920241966
Wilgrove920241995
Bullock920241997
Mcginnis Crossroad920222001
Highlands920241994
Siloam820242005
Durham720241990

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.