BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in North Carolina has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+122%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in North Carolina: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 2.6–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 2.6–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.82.55.1
20273.82.55.1
20283.92.65.2
20293.92.65.2
20303.92.65.3

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sturgills2220252001
Todd1920251995
Wilgrove1120251995
Oteen1020241976
Hulls Xroads1020231997
Saxapahaw920231967
Brevard920251968
Youngsville920251966
Mount Airy920252000
French Broad River920252001
Mcginnis Crossroad920222001
Ostwalt920252012
Flay820251990
Marshall820251990
Bullock820251997
Cullowhee720251974
Hendersonvil720251996
Monticello720251990
Waterville720251994
Bethel620252003
Highlands620251994
Oakboro520251969
Fontana520241968
Copeland520251968
Biscoe520251990

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.