BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Connecticut has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Connecticut is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.3 (95% range 4.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Connecticut is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.3 (95% range 4.9–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.14.711
20268.14.712
20278.24.812
20288.24.812
20298.34.912

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren1720111972
E Hartland1519921966
Uncasville1320241973
Willimantic1120181967
Granby1120241988
Sherman1020191972
No Woodbury920241967
New Hartford920241994
Warren 2920242012
Buckingham820221966
Woodstock820071968
Long Hill720191972
New Hartford719871972
Woodstock 2720242016
Mid Haddam620241973
Westbrook520241969
Mystic420231973
Southington320241973
Greenwich120181967
Danbury120231968

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.