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Species · Connecticut · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Connecticut has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Connecticut is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 4.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Connecticut is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 4.7–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.94.511
20278.04.611
20288.04.611
20298.14.612
20308.14.712

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren1720111972
E Hartland1519921966
Granby1220251988
Willimantic1120181967
Sherman1020191972
New Hartford920241994
Buckingham820221966
Woodstock820071968
Warren 2820252012
Uncasville720251973
Long Hill720191972
New Hartford719871972
Woodstock 2720252016
No Woodbury520251967
Mystic420231973
Mid Haddam420251973
Westbrook120251969
Greenwich120181967
Danbury120231968
Southington120251973

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.