BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in South Dakota has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in South Dakota is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in South Dakota is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.12
20270.060.000.12
20280.060.000.12
20290.060.000.12
20300.060.000.12

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle Butte520122003
Winner220172010
Wind Cave Np220252025
Veblen220172017
Owanka219761976
Lennox119711968
Tripp120242008
Howard120102010
Geddes120182002
Chamberlain119741968
Rockyford120172016
Ft Thompson119691969
Forbes119811981
Roubaix Lk119911969
Ottumwa119681967
Reva120092009
Ardmore119801980
Badlands119851985
Hill City119941994
Rochford120012001
Hazelrodt120182000

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.