BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Arkansas is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.8–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Arkansas is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.8–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.65.8
20264.22.75.8
20274.32.75.8
20284.32.85.9
20294.42.85.9

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell1620182010
Blakely1519991968
Zion1420241969
Saffell920191967
Lockesburg920192010
Nance820241992
Avoca720241967
Ravenden Springs620152010
Havana620212010
Locust Bayou520231967
Poyen520071967
Fulton520241967
Hope420241967
Hollywood420241969
Rupert420241969
Stark420241967
Lurton420231969
Maynard420241967
Crows319911967
Coal Hill320231968
Yellville320222010
Hatfield 2320232017
Poyen 2320242008
Augusta 2320162004
Ashdown220231968

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.