BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Arkansas has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Arkansas: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Arkansas is projected to rise about 85% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.7–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+85%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Arkansas is projected to rise about 85% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.7–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.55.7
20274.22.55.8
20284.22.65.8
20294.32.65.9
20304.32.75.9

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell1620182010
Blakely1519991968
Saffell920191967
Zion920251969
Centerton920252010
Lockesburg920192010
Nance820251992
Stark720251967
Avoca720241967
Maynard620251967
Fulton620251967
Ravenden Springs620152010
Havana620212010
Locust Bayou520231967
Poyen520071967
Hollywood420241969
Rupert420241969
Lurton420231969
Yellville420252010
Hope320251967
Crows319911967
Coal Hill320231968
Stephens320252010
Hatfield 2320232017
Poyen 2320242008

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.