BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Nebraska has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+202%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Nebraska: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Nebraska is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Nebraska is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.281.0
20260.660.291.0
20270.670.301.1
20280.680.311.1
20290.690.321.1

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brady620241980
Johnson520241970
Liberty520031967
Humboldt420242018
Pine Ridge320241999
Murdock320242019
Julian220241969
Belvidere220241991
Bartley220231970
Surprise220231977
Dalton219751975
Thurston220231971
Tilden220232023
Hampton220232019
Liberty 3220232013
Berwyn 2220172017
Liberty 2220072004
Berwyn220011993
Seward120231989
Kenesaw120192019
Kearney120241970
Sumner120241993
Holbrook120231969
Stratton120161975
Gretna120181967

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.