BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Kentucky has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Kentucky is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 4.0–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Kentucky is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 4.0–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.03.88.1
20266.03.98.2
20276.13.98.2
20286.14.08.3
20296.24.08.3

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paintsville2219951979
Kehoe1619921966
Staffordsvil1519971996
Pine Ridge1219781966
Joy1020231966
Cumberlnd Gp920181966
Dixon920242005
Hustonville920241966
Gesling919731967
Bays Fork920191999
Beattyville 2920242006
East Union820221966
Levee 2820192007
Hegira720241988
Monticello620221968
Pippa Passes619971988
Johnsonville620211966
Drakesboro620031966
Carter620241976
Lovelacevile520241968
Iron Bridge519861966
Sunnybrook520221969
Merrimac520241967
Dixie520191967
Campton520211979

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.