BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Vermont

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Vermont has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Vermont is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 3.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Vermont is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 3.2–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.83.210
20276.83.210
20286.83.210
20296.83.210
20306.83.210

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
East Haven1620251966
Gaysville1520251966
Stratton1320251966
Middlesex1220251968
Fletcher1220251968
East Calais1120251966
Greensboro1120251967
Marlboro920251966
Newbury 2920232005
Bristol920251995
North Pownal820251966
S Wallingfrd820221966
St Johnsbury820251970
Newbury820041986
W Rutland720251966
Hinesburg719941966
Landgrove620251966
Stowe620241988
Shaftsbury520251966
Waterville519801967
Northfld Fls420251980
Hardwick420241966
S Reading220241966
Post Mills220251966
Grand Isle220251967

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.