BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Vermont

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Vermont has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.7 (95% range 3.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.7 (95% range 3.1–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.73.110
20266.73.110
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Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
East Calais1320241966
Shaftsbury1220241966
Post Mills1120241966
Fletcher1120241968
Stratton1020241966
Gaysville1020211966
Newbury 2920232005
Marlboro820241966
S Wallingfrd820221966
W Rutland820241966
East Haven820241966
Newbury820041986
Landgrove720241966
St Johnsbury720241970
Middlesex720241968
Hinesburg719941966
North Pownal620241966
Stowe620241988
Bristol620181995
Waterville519801967
Hardwick420241966
Greensboro420241967
Grand Isle420241967
Northfld Fls320211980
S Reading220241966

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.