BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Iowa

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Iowa has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-44%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Iowa. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Iowa is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.33–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Iowa is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.33–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.292.2
20261.30.302.2
20271.30.312.2
20281.30.322.2
20291.30.332.2

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bedford820181968
Mt Hamill520241967
Red Rock420241968
Exline320241974
Wales320181967
Dinsdale320151970
Zearing319951971
Pierson320172009
Melrose220241974
Cedar Valley219971967
Washta220141970
Davis Corner220241989
Titonka220141975
Tipton220231993
Mccallsburg220191996
College Spgs120041967
Bryant120231969
West Liberty120241970
Brooklyn120211967
Williamsburg120211968
Desmoines119721970
Panther120181967
Washington120101976
Neola120151968
Maquoketa120231967

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.