BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Iowa

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Iowa has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Iowa. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Iowa is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.33–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Iowa is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.33–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.292.2
20271.30.302.2
20281.30.312.2
20291.30.322.2
20301.30.332.2

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Exline620251974
Mt Hamill320251967
Melrose320251974
Bedford320251968
Red Rock320251968
Dinsdale320151970
Zearing319951971
Pierson320172009
Bryant220251969
Cedar Valley219971967
Brooklyn220251967
Maquoketa220251967
Davis Corner220241989
Titonka220141975
College Spgs 2220252007
Tipton220251993
Mccallsburg220191996
College Spgs120041967
West Liberty120241970
Williamsburg120211968
Desmoines119721970
Panther120251967
Washington120101976
Neola120151968
Wales120251967

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.