BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Tennessee has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Tennessee: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Tennessee is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.3–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Tennessee is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 4.3–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.44.18.6
20276.44.28.7
20286.54.28.8
20296.64.38.8
20306.64.38.9

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Corryton Rd1920191966
Humboldt1620251967
Oliver Spgs1620221966
Walland1219891966
Big Sandy1120251966
Campbellsville1120191966
Silerton1020241966
Mansfield920251966
Pond Creek920251966
Union Hill920241967
Signal Mtn720251979
Elk Valley720251970
Jefferson Cty720061966
Mt Olive720241966
Cornpone720241990
Collinwood620251966
Tullahoma620151967
Lovell620191966
Climer620041967
Trenton520231969
Indian Mound519981966
Bradyville520211966
Smokey Jct520221966
Fish Springs520231966
Mecca520231994

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.