BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in New York has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in New York. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New York is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.2–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New York is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.2–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.13.27.0
20275.13.27.0
20285.13.27.0
20295.13.27.0
20305.13.27.0

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Churchville2420251973
Medusa1720241968
Petersburg1620181966
Dexter Lake1419751968
Dryden1320251966
Mt Hope1220101967
Catskills1220151967
Degrasse1220251980
Philadelphia1220251980
S Berne 21220252014
Warwick 21220131975
Cobleskill1120231966
Phillips Cr1120251967
N Victory 21120211978
Naples1120251966
Orange Lake1119921987
Warwick1019741968
Middletown1020131967
Rifton1019861967
Oneonta1020251968
Penfield1020251970
Parishville1020251968
Rhinebeck920251966
Ballston Lk919951967
Corbettsvile920251966

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.