BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in New York has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in New York. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New York is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in New York is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.03.16.9
20265.03.16.9
20275.03.16.9
20285.03.16.9
20295.03.16.9

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Corbettsvile1820241966
Medusa1720241968
Philadelphia1720241980
Petersburg1620181966
Dexter Lake1419751968
Mt Hope1220101967
Catskills1220151967
Duanesburg1220241966
North Easton1220241967
Warwick 21220131975
Cobleskill1120231966
Oneonta1120241968
Churchville1120241973
N Victory 21120211978
S Berne 21120242014
Orange Lake1119921987
Warwick1019741968
Middletown1020131967
Rifton1019861967
Rhinebeck920241966
Ballston Lk919951967
Meridale920241967
Oxford919761967
Clinton920131969
Parishville920241968

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.