BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in South Carolina has surged: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+476%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in South Carolina: up 475% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in South Carolina is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.7–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in South Carolina is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.7–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.54.1
20272.91.64.2
20282.91.64.2
20292.91.64.2
20303.01.74.3

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Owings 21620252005
Ridgeway720252010
Anderson720181980
Owings620041995
Blacksburg620131998
Cauthens Xrd620211983
Barton Creek520221967
Plum Branch520251978
New Ellenton420252010
Lowrys420252017
New Holland320251973
Campobello320252010
Whitmire320222010
Greenwood320251998
Battlecreek320241999
Prosperity320241992
Hardeeville219741971
Wagener220251985
Bishopville220242022
Pendleton219761966
Boiling Spgs219791967
Landrum219921972
Ward220252017
Mount Pisgah220251998
Chesnee220151992

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.