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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Michigan has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+3%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Michigan is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Michigan is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.33.7
20262.51.33.7
20272.51.33.7
20282.51.33.7
20292.51.33.7

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pickford1120241973
Bravo1020231978
Almena1020151993
Cathro920161969
Ontonagon820191967
Pleasant Valley 2720242006
Walloon Lake 2720242005
Herron720132011
Maple Grove620241967
Brush Creek620161974
Cohoctah620242021
Walloon Lake520041977
Mayfield520222000
New Buffalo520141992
Ned Lake420241986
Crystal Fls420241979
Pleasant Val419971967
Red Oak420131975
Fowlerville420191979
Beaver Lake420111967
Waldenburg420161975
Harrietta420241990
Wilson320101966
Cunard320211973
Bear Lake320241967

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.