BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Michigan has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Michigan is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Michigan is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.3–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.33.7
20272.51.33.7
20282.51.33.7
20292.51.33.7
20302.51.33.7

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bravo1020231978
Almena1020151993
Ishpeming920251981
Cathro920161969
Ontonagon820191967
Pickford820251973
Walloon Lake 2720242005
Herron720132011
Ned Lake620251986
Maple Grove620251967
Scottville620251968
Brush Creek620161974
Pleasant Valley 2620252006
Crystal Fls520251979
Walloon Lake520041977
New Buffalo520141992
Pleasant Val419971967
Nashville420251968
Red Oak420131975
Holt420251973
Fowlerville420191979
Beaver Lake420111967
Waldenburg420161975
Cohoctah420252021
Isabella 2420252015

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.