BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Alabama has surged: up 465% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+465%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Alabama: up 465% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Alabama is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.1–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Alabama is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 6.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.1–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.33.86.9
20275.43.97.0
20285.54.07.0
20295.64.07.1
20305.74.17.2

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Talladega1920251996
Wedowee1820231996
Swaim1720251967
Greensport1720251966
Wedgeworth1620251988
Riderwood1420231997
Sprague1320251980
Blocton1320251970
Elamville1320251984
Millerville1220251966
Greensboro1220251967
Wallsboro1220251973
Jena1220251981
Riverside1220131999
Drummond1220242001
Maytown1120251966
Liberty1120221975
Cottonton1120251993
Carrollton1120251995
Carter Grove1120232002
Guntersville1020241981
Odenville1020251996
Autaugaville1020251998
Pine Grove920251966
Warrior Std920251970

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

arkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.