BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Alabama has surged: up 464% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+464%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Phoebe has surged in Alabama: up 464% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Alabama is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.0–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Alabama is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.0–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.13.66.6
20265.23.76.7
20275.33.86.8
20285.43.96.8
20295.54.06.9

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Olive2420241968
Greensboro2220241967
Swaim2120241967
Greensport1920241966
Talladega1820241996
Wedowee1820231996
Pine Grove1620241966
Smyer Lake1620241966
Cottonton1520241993
Riderwood1420231997
Blocton1420241970
Millerville1220241966
Sprague1220241980
Calebee1220241994
Choccolocco1220241984
Nixburg 21220242000
Riverside1220131999
Drummond1220242001
Howard1120241975
Liberty1120221975
Billingsley1120221967
Carter Grove1120232002
Maytown1020231966
Warrior Std1020241970
Guntersville1020241981

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

arkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.