BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Minnesota has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+16%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Minnesota is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.79–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Minnesota is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.79–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.762.7
20271.70.772.7
20281.80.772.7
20291.80.782.7
20301.80.792.8

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bagley1020061995
Debs920251969
Brook Park920251998
Brainerd920241993
Nebish720251982
Backus620251967
Pine River620251967
Little Fork620241969
Whitewater620001994
Sherry Lake420221969
Crane Lake420251972
Lake Bronson420031979
Chatfield 2420252003
Wigwam Bay320231967
Edwards320241981
Badger320181983
New London320231995
Mcgregor320251993
Nett Lake320242013
Money Creek220241969
Chatfield219991970
Ash Creek220241977
Princeton220251969
Knapp220251969
Cromwell220251967

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.