BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Phoebe in Minnesota has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Phoebe Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Phoebe in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Eastern Phoebe Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Minnesota is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.80–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Phoebe in Minnesota is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.80–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.762.7
20261.80.772.7
20271.80.782.8
20281.80.792.8
20291.80.802.8

Eastern Phoebe Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Eastern Phoebe in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bagley1020061995
Pine River920241967
Brainerd920241993
Debs720241969
St Stephen620161967
Little Fork620241969
Whitewater620001994
Brook Park520241998
Caledonia 2520242013
Sherry Lake420221969
Lake Bronson420031979
Nebish420231982
Cromwell320241967
Wigwam Bay320231967
Edwards320241981
Badger320181983
New London320231995
Bigfork320241993
Nett Lake320242013
Money Creek220241969
Chatfield219991970
Ash Creek220241977
Backus220241967
Evergreen220241967
Floodwood220241968

Eastern Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.